According to most economists, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney will probably raise interest rates, to slow inflation. Fixed-income investors aren’t so sure.

Twenty-five of 27 economists in a Bloomberg survey said that Carney would augment the record low lending rate by a quarter- percentage point to 0.5 percent, the first Group of Seven central banker to do so since last year’s global recession.

Yields on overnight index swaps on May 28, meantime, indicated a 70 percent to 80 percent chance of a rate boost, said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Canada’s domestic spending has shown strength, including a report today that economists predict will show 5.9 percent first-quarter growth at an annualized rate, the fastest in a decade. Employment gains set a record in April, and retail sales rose the most in March in five years. For some investors those data are overshadowed by concern European governments will struggle to finance deficits, slowing global growth.

“Whatever the surveys and market prices are showing, many still believe it’s a close call”, Toronto-based Porter said. “Based on the domestic fundamentals there’s no debate whatsoever,” Porter said. “The only debate is whether the bank dares to hike interest rates in what could be the eye of the hurricane, or whether it could be a passing storm”.

Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demanded to own Canadian high-yield rather than federal government debt was 542 basis points on May 27, compared with 497 basis points April 30, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.