Westpac Economists Witnessed First Slowing After Ten Months of Acceleration

Westpac Economists Witnessed First Slowing After Ten Months of AccelerationThe annualized growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index was 7.6% in April, well above its long term trend of 3%. While, the annualized growth rate of the Coincident Index was 3.9%, which is also higher than its long term trend of 3.2%.

The month witnessed moderation from 8.8% in March, a 12.5 year high, to 7.6% in April, though the growth rate in the Index remained very strong in April. This is for the first time that the index is slowing after ten successive months of sharp speeding up.

International developments has led to the most modern rise in the annualized growth rate from 5.4% in November to 7.6% in April, in terms of the Index components. The commodity prices have contributed 2.7ppts and US industrial production has added1.1ppts. As a matter of fact, corporate profits also contributed positively.

The components that contributed negatively were dwelling approvals, overtime worked, productivity and the All Ordinaries index. Only the real money supply added 0.1ppts to growth.

The All Ordinaries Index dipped 1.4% and dwelling approvals fell 14.8%, but the US industrial production surged 0.8% and the real money supply increased to some extent.

While the unemployment rate was unaffected, retail trade was up by 0.3%; employment increased by 0.3%.